It may be an odd-numbered year but Tuesday’s elections aren’t sleepy, local contests. Voters in Virginia are weighing in on a governor’s race that could rattle President Joe Biden and Democrats in Washington.

What to watch as returns come in Tuesday:

WILL DEMOCRATS WAKE UP?

Virginia was an early hub of the Democratic resistance to President Donald Trump. Today, it may be the center of Democratic fatigue. Polls have shown that Republicans in Virginia have a sizable enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, jeopardizing Democrats’ chances of holding onto the governor’s office in a state Biden won by 10 percentage points last year.

Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe has been trying to fire up his voters by casting Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin as a “Trump wannabe.” But it’s not clear the label is sticking. Youngkin has avoided being seen with Trump — or any national GOP leaders — and has kept his focus on education, spending and other state issues.

McAuliffe’s campaign notes he’s running in a tough environment for any Democrat. Biden’s approval number have slouched amid a stalemate over his economic agenda in Congress, his pullout from Afghanistan, rising inflation and the persistence of the coronavirus.

Democrats’ best bet may be that the unexpectedly tight race — along with the threats to abortion rights and continued messaging on Trump — jolts their base and pushes them to the polls. Even a narrow win for Democrats in a state they won by double digits last year will be little comfort as the party tries to hold onto its incredibly tight congressional majorities in next year’s midterms. Just a five-seat swing in the House or a single one in the Senate could flip a chamber.

HAS YOUNGKIN CRACKED THE CODE?

Youngkin, in his first bid for public office, is showing Republicans a potential way forward in the post-Trump era. He positioned himself as a nonthreatening suburban dad in a fleece vest, but steadfastly refused to denounce the former president, who remains popular among Republicans.

Youngkin has stayed on message even as McAuliffe hammered him for being a stalking horse for Trump. Rather than engaging, Youngkin has gone after McAuliffe on taxes and especially education.

It’s those education attacks that offer the most encouraging path for Republicans. Seizing on widespread discontent with schools during the pandemic and heated debates about race, Youngkin has criticized schools over hot-button conservative issues like critical race theory. He even waded into a murky sexual assault allegation and resurrected a debate about banning books. That’s enabled him to appeal both to suburban voters resentful of their local school districts and to hard-line Trump voters who see the education debate as central to their political identity.

The best sign that Youngkin’s gambit works will be how he performs in the affluent northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., once a bastion of the Republican Party but now a key part of the Democratic coalition.

If Youngkin makes inroads in northern Virginia and in the Richmond suburbs, it’s a sign he was able to successfully walk the line. Likewise, if Democrats hold the margins from their successful 2017 gubernatorial race there, it’d be a sign of continued trouble for Republicans in highly educated suburbs.

WHEN WILL WE KNOW THE WINNER?

Be wary of early returns in Virginia because they might not resemble the final results.

In 2020, Trump jumped out to a huge early lead over Biden that lasted until early Wednesday, when heavily Democratic counties in northern Virginia finished counting their mail ballots. Once the Democratic counties reported, the race flipped in Biden’s favor and he ultimately won by a comfortable margin.

The late swing in favor of Biden was especially big because most counties, including Fairfax, the state’s largest, released the results of their mail ballots at the end of the night, and Virginia’s mail ballots heavily favored Democrats.

This year, a new state law requires counties to start processing mail ballots at least seven days before Election Day so they can be counted and released on election night soon after the polls close at 7 p.m. EDT. Counties are expected to release the results of their mail ballots first, followed by early in-person votes and, finally, votes cast at local polling places on Election Day. Fairfax County officials have said they plan to follow this procedure.

If Virginia’s mail ballots continue to favor Democrats and the Election Day votes favor Republicans, the vote count could swing back and forth, depending on which type of votes are being released.

Mail ballots can arrive as late as Friday and still be counted, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. Historically, less than 2% of Virginia’s votes are counted after Election Day.