| Yesterday, Governor Glenn Youngkin announced that general fund revenues are ahead of forecast by $948.0 million year-to-date. Most of the increase above forecast is the result of differences in the timing of events anticipated in the Forecast. Absent these timing differences, revenues are modestly ahead of forecast, providing an added buffer to prepare the Commonwealth for any recession that may occur in FY 2024. With just one month remaining in the fiscal year, revenue collections are essentially flat when adjusted for policy actions and timing issues and are down 3.4% year-to-date on an unadjusted basis.
“The revenue forecast we put forward in December continues to accurately predict the state’s finances; Virginians can rest assured that our economic position remains strong,” said Governor Glenn Youngkin. “There continues to be plenty of money in the system for commonsense priorities to lower costs and cut taxes for families and local businesses while making critical investments in shared goals like the transformation of Virginia’s behavioral health system. I continue to encourage the general assembly to work with us to negotiate a budget that will deliver for Virginians and keep our Commonwealth’s economy strong.”
“With one month remaining in the fiscal year, general fund revenue collections are ahead of forecast,” said Secretary of Finance Stephen Cummings. “The economic downturn assumed in our forecast in the current fiscal year has so far been averted, and given positive results versus our forecast, the Commonwealth is prepared should a recession occur in fiscal year 2024. Finance remains confident in the forecast in the Governor’s introduced budget, which included significant investments in high priority areas and fiscally responsible tax relief.”
Both April and May are important months for individual income tax final payments. Collections in April and May combined were down for the year but higher than anticipated, resulting in year-to-date non-withholding revenues exceeding the forecast by $1 billion.
Among other major sources, withholding and sales tax collections are trailing projections, while corporate income tax revenues exceed forecast.
The full May 2023 revenue report is available here. |
